The balance of the country's balance sheet is its structure and indicators. Payment balance. Balance curve. Double recording system
Chapter 20. Macroeconomic problems of the open economy
Section V. Open Economics
The balance of payments reflects the entire range of international trade and financial operations of the country with other countries and is a final entry of all economic transactions (transactions) between this country and other countries during the year. It characterizes the relationship between currency revenues to the country and payments that this country produces other countries.
The balance of payments use the principle of a double recording, since any transaction has two sides - debit and credit. The debit reflects the influx of values \u200b\u200b(real and financial assets) to the country for which the country must pay foreign currency, so debit operations are recorded with a minus sign, as they increase the proposal of the national currency and create demand for foreign currency (these are import-like operations). Operations that reflect the outflow of values \u200b\u200b(real and financial assets) from the country for which foreigners should pay reflected with the "Plus" sign and are exported. They create demand for national currency and increase the supply of foreign currency.
The balance of payments is the basis for the development of monetary, fiscal, currency and foreign trade policies of the country and the management of state external debt.
The balance of payments includes three sections:
· account of current operationswhich reflects the amount of all operations given
countries with other countries related to trade in goods, services and translations and therefore includes:
a) export and import of goods (visibles)
Exports of goods reflected with the "+" sign, i.e. Credit because it increases foreign currency reserves. Import is recorded with the sign "-", i.e. Debit, since it reduces foreign currency reserves. Exports and imports of goods is a trade balance.
b) Export and import services (Invisibles), for example, international tourism. This section however excludes credit services.
c) net investment revenues (otherwise called pure factor income or net income from credit services), which is a difference between interest and dividends received by citizens of the country from foreign investments, and interest and dividends obtained by foreigners from investments in a given country.
d) clean transfers that include foreign help, pensions, gifts, grants, money transfers
Current account balance in macroeconomic models
reflected as pure exports:
EX - IM \u003d XN \u003d Y - (C + I + G)
where EX - Export, IM - Import, XN - Pure Export, Y - Country GDP, and the amount of consumer spending, investment spending and public procurement (C + I + G) is called absorption And represents part of GDP, implemented by domestic macroeconomic agents - households, firms and the state.
The balance of current operations can be both positive, which corresponds to the surplus of the current operation account and negative, which corresponds to the current account deficit. If there is a deficit, it is funded either with the help of foreign loans, or by selling financial assets, which is reflected in the second section of the balance of payments - the capital's capital account.
· capital traffic accountwhich reflects all international transactions with
asset, i.e. Capital Inflows and Outflows (Capital Inflows and Outflows) both in long-term operations and short-term (selling and buying securities, purchase of real estate, direct investment, current accounts of foreigners in a given country, foreigners loans and foreigners, treasury bills, etc. P.).
Capital motion balance can be as positive (clean
the influx of capital into the country) and negative (pure capital outflow from the country).
· the score of official reservescomprising foreign currency reserves, gold
and international settlement facilities, such as a SDR (special borrowing rights -special Drawing Rights). SDR (called paper gold) is reserves in the form of accounts in the IMF (International Monetary Fund). In the event of a balance of payments deficit, the country can take reserves from the account in the IMF, and with a surplus - increase your reserves in the IMF.
If the balance of the balance of payments is negative, i.e. There is a deficit,
it should be financed. In this case, the Central Bank reduces the official reserves, i.e. occurs intervention(Intervention - intervention) of the central bank. Intervention is the purchase and sale of foreign currency bank in exchange for the national. When the balance of payments deficiency, as a result of the central bank intervention, the supply of foreign currency in the domestic market is increasing, and the proposal of the national currency is reduced. This operation is exported and taken into account with the "+" sign, i.e. This is a loan. Since the amount of national currency in the domestic market decreased, its exchange rate increases, and this has a deterrent effect on the economy.
If the balance balance is positive, i.e. There is a surplus, there is an increase in official reserves in the Central Bank. This is reflected with the "-" sign, i.e. This is a debit (import-like operation), since the supply of foreign currency in the domestic market is reduced, and the proposal of the national currency increases, therefore, its course falls, and this has a stimulating effect on the economy.
As a result of these operations, the balance of payments becomes equal to zero.
BP \u003d XN + CF - DR \u003d 0or BP \u003d XN + CF \u003d DR
Operations with official reserves are used in the system of fixed exchange rates so that the currency rate remains unchanged. If the currency rate is floating, then the balance of payments deficit is compensated by the influx of capital to the country (and vice versa), and balance balance balance is equalized (without intervention, i.e. Central Bank interventions).
We prove it from the macroeconomic identity.
Y \u003d c + i + g + xn
The value (C + G) from both parts of the identity (C + G), we obtain:
Y - C - G \u003d C + I + G + XN - (C + G)
In the left part of the equation, we received the value of national savings, from here: S \u003d I + XN
or regrouping, we get: (I - S) + xn \u003d 0
The value (I - S) is the excess of internal investments over internal savings and there is nothing more than the balance of capital accounts, and XN is the balance of current operations. I rewrite the last equation:
Xn \u003d s - i
This means that the positive balance of the current operation is consistent with the outflow of capital (negative balance of capital account), since national savings exceed internal investments, they are sent abroad, and the country advocates the creditor. If the balance of current operations is negative, then national savings are missing to provide internal investments, so capital inflows are needed from abroad, and the country acts as a borrower. If capital inflows occurs, the national currency is becoming more expensive, and if capital outflows from the country, the national currency is cheaper. The intervention of the central bank in the mode of floating exchange rates is not required.
Since the formation of the first states in the history of mankind, trade went beyond the limits of one country. Initially, it could be the exchange of goods, but after the emergence of money, the scale of trading operations changed significantly.
Concept
For too long, international trade transactions between countries did not have their own name. For the first time, such a concept as the balance of payments was introduced into the financial terminology in 1767 by James Denim Stuart, the British economist. In his understanding, this term meant consumption by citizens of money abroad and pay for foreigners.
In modern interpretation, the balance of payments are payments carried out from one country to another. Consider the structure and history of the occurrence in more detail.
Conditions and necessity in the emergence of international balances
As the story showed, the emergence of such a financial category, as a balance of payments, has noticeably changed the national economy of most countries.
If at the end of the XIX and at the beginning of the 20th century, the cost of currency is quite a long period of time at one level, supported by the "gold standard", which, in fact, formed their course (which satisfied everyone), then in the conditions of "floating" such approach became unprofitable.
Earlier in the regulation of any changes to the course of currencies, the Financial Article "Reserve Assets" participated. In our time, the payment balance of the country, or rather, its condition affects the fall or rise of the course. This financial category had to go through several transformations to come to the structure that the International Monetary Fund represents today.
Main financial approaches
To date, act:
- The classic is considered the theory proposed by David Yum. She got the name "Automatic equilibrium". It was in it that the main work on the settlement of exchange rates was conducted by "reserve assets".
- The next stage was the neoclassical approach called elastic. In its development, such financial geniuses, like J. Robinson, A. Lerner, L. Mesler. According to their theory, the bone of the balance of payments of the country is its foreign trade, the balance of which is due to the price level for exported goods relative to imported and multiplied by the mortgage rate. With this approach, balance balance is ensured by changing the currency rate. That is, its devaluation will reduce prices in foreign currency for export goods, while revaluation "makes" foreign buyers to acquire products of a given country at a more expensive value.
- The following theory is an absorption approach in which the payment balance (it is its trading part) "tied" to the main elements of the country's GDP. The founder of this approach was S. Alexander, who took the idea as the basis that J. Mid and Ya. Tinbergen. Regulation of the balance of payments in this case is carried out by stimulating the export while holding the import. This should stimulate domestic producers to produce competitive products and provide the same high level of services, and not depend solely on the devaluation of the currency, as in the previous approach.
- The monetarist balance theory is tied to cash factors, namely, how the balance affects the circulation of money in the country. Here the approach is as follows: to avoid the deficit of the balance of payments, it is necessary to hardly control the amount of money walking in the country. If there are too much of them, then they should get rid of, acquiring foreign goods or services.
All listed approaches were applied at different times and remain relevant today. Depending on which from the bottom is currently used in the country, the types of operations carried out by it are dependent.
Structure
As a rule, many countries as regulating balance of payments use trading operations, seeking to achieve a positive balance. In fact, there may be several operations.
The International Monetary Fund amounted to a balance of payments scheme, which includes 112 articles divided into 7 blocks. This scheme is extremely complex for people in the financial spheres, so it has been simplified to three parts, minimize everything to the following sections:
- current operations accounts;
- accounts related to capital operations (financial instruments);
- operations regulating the balance of payments.
Consider in more detail what they represent.
Basic payment operations accounts
The accounts of current payment balance accounts include:
- import products.
And together they constitute a trade balance. It is also necessary to mention:
- services (including trade and services balance sheet);
- investment income;
- transfers.
As a rule, the accounts of current financial transactions of the balance of payments reflect all the cash receipts that come from the sale of goods and services to non-residents, as well as net income from investment projects. All export receipts are taken into account in the graph with a plus, since these transactions treated with foreign currency. When survey operations are carried out, they are taken into account as a minus in the debit column, since the currency outflows from the country.
Worldwide, the basis of the balance of payments of countries is it takes up to 80% of the volume in international economic relations. If at the same time the balance balance is positive, then this is a sign that in this country high-quality competitive products are issued.
Paying Balance Accounts on Capital
Accounts on capital and instruments include:
- directly accounts for operations with capital;
- financial accounts in which the following tools include direct investments, portfolio and other investments.
Accounts with capital operations include all types of purchase and sale and transactions on them, capital transfers, cancellation of debts, investment grants, transfer of property rights, debt government, the transfer of rights to both material (for example, land subsoil) and intangible licenses etc.) assets.
When the influx is underway on these currency accounts in the treasury, you can talk about a positive balance. And vice versa.
Financial accounts are related to operations on the transfer of property rights to the financial assets of this country. The loans provided may be the form of both direct and portfolio investments.
in payment operations
These concepts are the basis of any financial transactions, as they determine their quality. Balance balance is a group of accounts that ideally have to be with a positive indicator after those financial operations that were conducted in the country or abroad (export imports).
These operations, in turn, are divided into primary (that is, they are independent and have sustainable growth trends) and secondary (short-term, are under an external influence, for example, the Central Bank or the government of the country).
All countries in the world seek to achieve active, as a last resort, zero balance of payments. If at some economic stage of the country's development of its balance for a long time is in minus, then the reserves of gold and currency in the central bank are reduced until the devaluation of its internal currency comes.
Methods of payment of payment
Any payments made between countries are indicated in two columns: a loan and debit, and the difference between their indicators is taken into account either as a positive or as a negative balance.
For example, when the country exports goods, labor, services, information, or knowledge and in its treasury, there is an influx of foreign currency, then all receipts from the operations carried out will be inscribed in the Count with the "+" balance balance of the loan balance.
The same operations, but only to import, entering the outflow of currency from the country are made to the Graduate "Debit" with the sign "-".
If the country is purchased (currency, securities) abroad, then such financial operations are also recorded in the Debit, so at the same time the currency outflow occurs. In the event that it, on the contrary, sells domestic capital or writes off non-residents (individual companies or a whole country) debt, it will be fixed on the "loan". For example,
The balance of payments at the same time is a document in which foreign economic relations and operations of the country are recorded, and since it has an international format, then all the money movements are taken into account in dollars.
in balance
These two concepts are associated with actions under which either the financing of a negative balance is carried out or the use of its positive analogue.
The deficit in the balance must overlap something, and it is important to determine if it will be a foreign entrepreneurial account or capital in the form of loans.
The first, naturally, is preferable, since it provides a flow of currency into the country, while the loans will entail her outflow, and even with percentages.
As an extreme measure, it is possible for overlapping a deficit in the balance of the country's gold and foreign exchange reserve, well, and a completely desperate step is the devaluation of the internal currency.
If there is a surplus that emerged during current operations, the country consumes the resulting capital to emerging negative balance. Also, part of the money enters the article "Clean errors and skipping".
MFI payment scheme
The structure of the balance of payments adopted in 1993 of the IMF includes:
- Estimated balance. The entire financial obligations of one country in relation to other / other states and their implementation are the deadlines specified in the Agreement.
- Balance of international debt. This includes actual payments to other countries and the influx of money from them.
In reports on these types of balances, the amount of credit for money should coincide with the debit.
Balance of Russia
If we consider the balance of payments of Russia, the main movement of foreign currency is displayed in the following import and export ratios:
- overseas transport;
- sphere of tourism;
- purchase or sale of licenses (patents, brands);
- trade;
- international insurance;
- direct or portfolio investment and much more.
For the first time in the structure proposed by the IMF of Russia, the balance of payments was compiled back in 1992, and since then it is drawn up according to the same schemes.
Throughout the time, the main source of currency in the country was exporting oil and gas, wood, weapons, techniques, coal and other products.
The main foreign trade partners of Russia are China, USA, Germany, Kazakhstan, Belarus and other countries of near and far abroad.
Output
So, the balance of payments is a statistical report on all international operations that are held between countries. It indicates the transactions, the dates of payments, debit, credit and balance on them.
All three section of the balance of payments reflect the financial position of the country by:
- current operations;
- capital and financial instruments;
- pass and mistakes.
They are the balance of payments structure. All countries in the world are adhered to these parameters.
The currency movement, including those expressed in the currency of each state, the relationship between the amount of payments received to the country for a certain time period and the amount of payments translated into foreign accounts for the same period of time and is a statistical document. The difference from these arrivals is called balance balance balance and may have both positive and negative importance, which has a direct impact on the foreign economic position of the state. In the case of a negative balance of payments, the indicator determines how much more state spends currency funds abroad. This factor can adversely affect the stability of the exchange rate. The balance of payments deficit denotes that the population of the state in a particular period paid to foreigners more than was obtained from them, respectively, foreigners have the amount of money of this country, equal to the magnitude of its balance of payments. The change in currency reserves of the country in its essence is a component of the accounting of transactions with capital and financial instruments.The balance of payments expresses the movement of capital and goods and determines the net currency receipts from all transactions. The balance of payments is a reflection of the state of international economic relations of a particular state with foreign partners. Stability or not stability of the balance of payments determines currency, monetary, fiscal, foreign trade policy, and the ability to choose tools in the field of state debt management.
Types of balance of payments
The balance of payments is divided into several types:
- Trade balance;
- Trade and services;
- Base balance;
- On current operations;
- Liquidity;
- Balance of autonomous accounts;
- Balance of international investment debt.
Definition 2.
Under the influence of factors such as changing the price, the level of income, the autonomous movement of large amounts of capital in the balance of payments may occur. Disproportion - This is a discrepancy between any parts of one whole, violation of the proportion, mismatch or disproportion.
For a number of reasons, the balance of payments is regulated by the state. In these reasons, impassableness is characteristic of the balance of payments, the indicators of which becomes the deficit of one state and the surplus of the other. Also, after the cancellation of the "Gold Standard", the balance of payments does not have the ability to balance independently, in effect, in this process it is necessary to state regulation. Finally, due to transnationalization (one of the moments of internationalization, interlacing and interaction of national economies), the indicators of the balance of payments in the state regulation system are steadily increasing and require special attention.
In the balance of payments are allocated four bills . The graphically balance of balance is presented in the form of a form of an accounting report (table) with statistical data submitted to it (Table 1).
Picture 1.
What calculations includes a balance of payments?
The organization and regulation of payments for monetary requirements and state obligations is called an international calculation. In the process of economic, political and socio-cultural relations between countries there are currency requirements and obligations. The most frequently used path of international calculations is non-cash payments carried out through credit organizations (banks) on the basis of contractual relations. Contractual relations between banks are also called correspondent relationships. Two types of correspondent relations are allocated:
- Nostro - These are the accounts of a specific bank in other banks;
- Loro - These are the accounts of other banks in a particular bank.
Note 1.
Depending on the degree of convertibility of the currency, its positions and positions of the national currency, as well as contract conditions use different forms of international settlements, in the aggregate, which enclose certain methods of payments and the means of calculations.
Payment methods include: advance payments, letters of credit, collection, payments on an open account, payments immediately after shipment of goods.
The value of the balance of payments in the world economy
In varying degrees of participation, all states of the world participate in world foreign economic relations and relationships. Unconditional leaders in these processes, of course, it is worth identifying countries with developed economies and durable positions in the global economy. In its development, world-economic bonds take place various stages of their development. At this stage, it allocate to strengthen the objective trend in the internationalization and globalization of the global economy. National markets, financial resources, capital gained an opportunity to combine into world markets. Since the balance of payments is a balance sheet account of international operations and transactions, its publications cover not only actually made payments and receipts or should be executed on a specific date, but also indicators for international requirements and liabilities. Nowadays, most of the transactions lies and takes place on a credit basis and this causes, the fact that modern payment balance sheets include a sufficiently large amount of information about the movement of various types of values \u200b\u200bbetween states. And at the same time, part of the obligations not paid in the current period, but transferred to the future period and is included in the articles of the capital and loans.
The relationship of the international movement of goods, services, knowledge, capital and labor with the macroeconomic parameters of the development of individual countries is reflected in their balance of payments.
Payment balance It is a statistical report on all international transactions of residents of a particular country with non-residents for a certain period of time. It reflects the ratio between the volume of goods and services obtained by this country due to the border and the abroad provided by it, as well as changes in its financial position in relation to abroad.
It should be noted that the balance of payments deals with flows, and not with reserves, with changes in real and financial assets and liabilities that occurred for the base period, and not with the total amounts of economic assets and liabilities of the country that exist in a particular point in time.
The balance of payments is compiled in order to fulfill both accounting and analytical tasks that are closely related to each other. The balance of payments analysis makes it possible to draw conclusions on how much the dynamics of foreign economic flow factor flows corresponds to the objectives of macroeconomic, monetary, currency and tax policies.
Methods of drawing up and theory of balance of payments
Double recording system
The fundamental to compiling balance of payments is the method of dual recording of international transactions. This method is based on the fact that each registered operation corresponds to the payment in one form or another, and the balance of payments and revenues must converge. The double accounting system used in the preparation of the balance of payments means that each operation is represented by two entries having the same value. One of them is registered as "Credit" and has a positive sign, the other is like "debit" with a negative sign, and the sum of their values \u200b\u200bshould be zero.
Most records in the balance of payments relate to operations in which some economic values \u200b\u200bare provided or purchased in exchange for others. Another part of the records is repaying loan and debit records that require the registration system (there are two records of equal values \u200b\u200bon both subjects of exchange). For example, the export of some product is registered in goods statistics, and payment of this export is in the statistics of banking operations on changes in the asset and passive.
As an example, we take the exporter who received foreign currency for your product. In this case, one entry (in this case, "Credit") will mean registration of the export of goods, and the other entry (in this case, the Debit will record an increase in the currency account exporter to the same amount:
Credit Debit
Export .......................... 100 -
The preparation of the balance of payments at the time of the calculation covers only transactions related to cash payments. Thus, only the payments and receipts are taken into account in it. By virtue of this, this approach has certain limitations: the operations carried out without cash settlements are not taken into account, as well as the loans received.
The approach based on operations provides accounting for various stages of foreign operations, reflecting all the requirements and obligations of the country to abroad, including outstanding. The criterion in this case is the transfer of property from residents to non-residents and vice versa. The specified method gives a more complete understanding of economic operations between residents and non-residents, including non-cash transactions in the balance of payments.
We will illustrate the verified example. So, the importer acquires goods abroad, attracting a foreign loan for these purposes. In this case, the importer does not receive a currency from non-resident exporter. As a result, when drawing up balance of payments by the method of operations, the specified transaction will be reflected in the following post:
Credit Debit
Product ...................... .................. - 100
At the same time, when drawing up balance of payments by the calculation method, the record would be made only at the time of repayment of the loan, which can be significantly shifted regarding the moment of the transaction.
In modern conditions, in most countries, the balance of payments are compiled by the method of operations. This approach prevailed as a result of discussions and is currently consistent with the recommendations of the IMF.
Errors and skipping
The dual entry system involves the formal lack of discrepancies between the size of the loan and debit articles. In practice, such a state is unattainable. Due to the complexity of the complete coverage of all transactions, the inhomogeneity of prices, the difference in the time of registration of transactions, etc. is inevitable different distortions. This causes an introduction to the payment balance of a special article "Errors and Pass" (or "Clean Errors and Skipping"). As a rule, the magnitude shown in this article is relatively small and stable, but it increases sharply and can achieve large values \u200b\u200bin countries with weak control over the provision of reports by participants in foreign economic relations for balance of payments statistics. In this case, the magnitude of the permits and errors gives an idea of \u200b\u200ban unregistered outflow (or influx) of capital.
Classification of payment balance articles
Periodically publishing a guide on the balance of payments, the IMF has developed its unified scheme that allows intercountry comparisons. Led in Table. 38.1.
Table 38.1. Planning Balance of the Russian Federation 1994-1998 .. (Neutral performance): Main units, million dollars.
The classification of the payment balance sheets according to the IMF methodology is based on the difference between the two main sections: I. The account of current operations (current balance of payments) and II. Account of operations with capital and financial instruments (so-called capital articles).
In turn, the score of current operations is divided into three broad categories: goods and services, investment revenues and labor payments and current transfers. The current account reflects the operations with real resources (goods, services, income), and the account of the capital's movement shows the financing of the movement of the streams of real resources. In this case, transfers are included in the current account, since they are balancing articles on current operations, and not the form of their financing. Balance balance balance on current operations is equal to the amount of trade balance (export-import) and the balance of "invisible operations" (services, non-profit operations, including income and investment payments, as well as transfers).
Table 38.2 Payment balance of the Russian Federation for 1998, million dollars (analytical presentation)
Theoretical Approaches to Balanced Balance
In accordance with the principles of building a balance of payments, it is always balanced. The concept of a negative or positive balance applies only to separate parts. At the same time, it should be noted that the balance of a priority balance itself cannot have a one-valued interpretation in terms of its impact on the national economy. Depending on the purpose of economic policy, both negative and positive balance in individual articles may be regarded in positive, and in a negative plan.
Usually within the general balance of payments, the balance of trade balance, balance sheet operations, the balance of capital and the balance of official calculations is distinguished.
Balance balance It is formed as the difference between exports and imports of only goods (excluding services). Comments on the trade balance depend on what factors have led to this change. For example, if a negative balance was formed as a result of the reduction of exports, this may indicate a decrease in the competitiveness of the national economy and to be considered as a negative phenomenon. But if such a situation has become the result of the growth of imports due to the influx of direct investment in the country, it cannot be considered as a weakening of the national economy.
Balance balance for current operations (The most frequently mentioned balance) is considered, as a rule, as a reference balance of the balance of payments, since it determines the needs of the country in financing, being simultaneously a factor in foreign economic restrictions in internal economic policies. The positive balance of the current balance of payments means that the country is a net lender in relation to other states, and vice versa, current operations deficit means that the country becomes a pure debtor, obliged to pay for net imports of goods, services and finance transfers. In fact, the country with a positive balance of the current balance of payments invests a part of national savings abroad instead of increasing the internal accumulation of capital.
Capital and Finance Self Movement In fact, it is a mirror reflection of the state of the current balance, as it shows the financing of the stream of real resources. True, some of this mirror reflection usually falls on the article "Clean errors and skipping".
Balance balance of official calculations It is the most common definition of a total (final) balance of payments and indicates an increase in (decreasing) of liquid demands on the country from non-residents or an increase in (decreasing) of the country's official reserves in foreign liquid assets. Recall that this balance covers all articles except the "Reserve Assets" article.
Theories of the balance of payments
The state regulates the balance of the country's balance. At the same time, it is largely based on the theory of balance of payments. These theories passed a long path. Dominated in the XIX and early XX centuries. In the conditions of the Gold Standard, the Classical theory of the Tomatnika D. Yuma (1711-1776) was then departed into the past along with the Gold Standard. However, in the last two or three decades, interest in this theory has rear again. If in the previous conditions, the role of an automatic regulator took on the "Backup Assets", now, in conditions of floating exchange rates, such an automatic regulator partly becomes a floating exchange rate of the national currency, which falls when the state of the balance of payments increases and increases with its improvement, Automatically leads to changes in many current operations and partly in the movement of capital.
The neoclassical elo station was then formed, developed primarily by J. Robinson, A. Lerner, L. Mesler. This approach implies that the core balance of the balance of payments is the external trade and balance balance is determined primarily by the ratio of prices for exported RE products to the level of prices for imported PI products multiplied by the currency rate R, i.e. . Hence the conclusion is made: the most effective means of ensuring the balance of payments is to change the exchange rate.
After all, the devaluation of the national currency reduces the export prices in foreign currency, and revaluation - increases in price for foreign buyers the acquisition of goods of the specified country and reduces the cost of imports of foreign goods for its own residents.
But what is especially important, the degree of these changes in foreign demand for the country's export and in domestic import demand is determined by the coefficient of elasticity of demand for export and imports. This must be considered when changing the exchange rate. So, the import of goods that the country needs, but not produced in it, has a small elasticity compared to the import, which competes with local goods.
S. Alexander's work based on J. Mid and Ya. Tinbergen's ideas formed the basis of an absorption approach, which is generally based on Keynesian theory. This approach seeks to connect the balance of payments (first of all the trade balance) with the main elements of GDP, primarily with cumulative domestic demand (for the designation and uses the term "absorption"). The absorption approach indicates that improving the state of the balance of payments (including through the devaluation of the national currency) increases the income of the country and as a result of this absorption as a whole, i.e. and consumption and investment. From here, Keynesians conclude: it is necessary to stimulate exports, restrain imports, and above all through an increase in the competitiveness of domestic goods and services in general (and not only by devaluation of the national currency).
The monetarist approach to the balance of payments was laid in the writings of many authors, especially H. Johnson and J. Pollaka. The main attention here is naturally paid to the cash factors, first of all the impact of the balance of the final balance of payments on the country's money circulation. Monetarists believe that it is the non-equilibrium in the country's money market determines the non-equilibrium balance of payments in general.
From here their main recommendation to the government: not interfere with radically not only in cash circulation, but also to the country's international settlements. After all, if there is more money in circulation than you need, then they are trying to get rid of them, including buying more foreign goods, services, property and other assets. To eliminate the balance of payments deficit, only hard control over the money supply is required. And in general, monetarists are considered to be treated as a secondary problem, because the balance of payments deficit helps the economy faster to get rid of the surplus of the money available.
Balance Analysis: Example of Russia
Analysis of the balance of payments of Russia for 1992-1998. Allows you to identify a number of sustainable trends in its dynamics and structure predetermined by the liberalization process of external economic relations and the macroeconomic policy of the government during market reforms. First of all it is necessary to note:
- the growth of the positive balance of trade balance and respectively the balance of current operations (current balance of payments);
- sustainable negative balance of service balance;
- constantly increasing negative balance of income from investment as a result of increasing payments for servicing external debt;
- huge amounts of overdue payments on the obligations of developing countries to Russia and postponed payments for servicing the external debt of the former USSR;
- significant negative sums of unrecorded operations reflected in the article "Clean errors and skipping".
The trend towards an increase in the positive trade balance is due to a significant increase in exports, primarily the goods of the fuel and energy group in the context of the "opening" of the economy and maintaining low total demand and supply in the domestic market. At the same time, imports of goods grew lower rates. It should also be noted that more than 20% of imports are provided by "shuttle trade".
The steady negative balance of the balance of non-factor services is mainly due to the negative balance under the article "Trips (Tourism)". After the "opening" of the economy, the number of Russian citizens traveling abroad for rest and on business trips has increased dramatically. As a result, in 1994-1998 The annual expenses of Russian citizens abroad exceeded 2-3 times the costs of non-residents for these purposes in Russia.
Balance balance of income from investment and wages is traditionally negative. This is due to the fact that the annual payments of interest on Russia attracted loans exceed the receipts of interest on loans, it provided by more than 1.5 times.
In connection with the increase in payments for servicing Russia foreign debt in 1997--1998. There was a sharp reduction in the positive balance on current operations.
The positive balance of balance on current operations, at first glance, testifies to the absence of the need to attract external currency resources to finance current operations. The account of operations with capital and financial instruments allows us to analyze the structure and dynamics of such investments both abroad and in Russia.
The volume of attracted direct investments in recent years continues to remain at a relatively low level - 0.4-0.5 billion dollars per quarter, which is a consequence of an unfavorable investment climate in Russia. The considerable amount and structure of attracted portfolio investments in 1996-1998 attracts attention. After opening in 1996, the GKO market for non-resident operations total imported investment in this type of securities reached the end of the first quarter of 1998. 19.9 billion dollars. For the same period of non-resident investments in the Eurobonds of federal and local authorities, 10, $ 8 billion (excluding bonds issued by agreement with the London Club).
Thus, over the past three years, it was portfolio investments that should have been the main source of financing current operations. However, it should be noted that, firstly, this financing was mainly (on 2/3) short-term character, and secondly, its value for current operations becomes less significant against the background of the outflow of short-term capital over the channels of export-import operations and The video of the import of foreign currency into the country.
Non-return of export revenue and goods under import advances in 1996-1998. It remained at the level of 8.6-11.5 billion dollars per year, and the amount of cash foreign currency during the same period in the Russian economy increased by $ 21 billion, which exceeds the volume of non-resident investments in GKO-OFZ.
When the GKO market has been formed and the yield on this ruble valuable paper exceeded several times the yield on assets in foreign currency, an increase in Russian residents in foreign currency in current accounts and deposits has practically ceased.
Balance of means of funds provided by loans in 1994-1998. It was traditionally positive, and only its magnitude changed. This is due to a significant exceeding the schedule for repaying the principal debt by our debtors in the public administration sector on the provision of new loans.
According to raised loans in the State Balance sector, the balance sheet is positive and set by the repayment schedule, the amount of the amounts transferred to the amounts and newly attracted loans necessary to finance the budget deficit and balance of payments.
Reserve assets have undergone significant fluctuations: in 1995 they increased by $ 10.4 billion, and in 1998 decreased by $ 5.3 billion. In general, the volume of reserves remained at a not enough level and could not be a serious source of financing current or capital operations.
A large negative balance on the article "Clean errors and skipping" means that there remains unrecorded significant amount of exported capital. This can be explained by the imperfection of the statistical and information base of the balance of payments of Russia. The main directions of its improvement are obvious: more complete accounting of the movement of cash currency, operations in the framework of the "Shuttle" trade, the introduction of a more rigid system of customs currency accounting and control on imported commodity operations and on export-import operations in the service sector.
Analysis of external assets and obligations of the country: Example of Russia
The standard components of the balance of payments are used to determine the internship and tray, which is a statistical report on its external assets and obligations to the beginning and end of the reporting period.
As the main classification groups used to determine the net investment position of the country, the external assets and obligations of residents are spent, the difference between which gives the desired value.
The international investment position contains information that is important for analyzing the country's economic condition. The net international investment position of the country characterizes the state and trends in its development of foreign economic relations with the rest of the world. Depending on whether this position is positive or negative, we can say whether the country is a "pure lender" or "pure debtor".
In general, the analysis of indicators of the balance of payments and the international investment position is important in the development of the country's economic policy, for example, in the development and practical implementation of economic stabilization programs, assess the need for funding related to the implementation of such programs.
To date, officially published statistics on the international investment position of Russia is generally absent. Since 1996, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has begun to publish data on the international investment position without taking into account the Vnesheconombank of Russia, which is a government agent for serving external debt and keep into account all the categories of assets and liabilities.
The net investment position of only the banking sector does not allow to judge the net investment position of the country as a whole, since a number of unknown parameters remain. In addition, unregulated capital export of capital over the past five years, significantly complicates the real situation with the definition of the international investment position of Russia.
The lack of clarity on the issue of accumulated external assets is due to the incompleteness of the process of reissuing debt obligations of developing countries in front of the former USSR to Russia. Currently, the total amount of foreign states on the loans provided in the framework of intergovernmental agreements is approaching 100 billion rubles. However, to note the conventionality of such a recalculation, since loans were provided in rubles, translated rubles, freely convertible currency (SCB) and commodity supplies and services on a clearing basis, and the problem of recognizing the course of the State Bank of the USSR to date is not yet settled with some debtor countries.
Of the currently existing 57 debtor countries, 18 states account for 94% of the total amount of debt, including Cuba - 18.4%, Mongolia - 11.4, Vietnam - 10.6, India - 8.7, Syria - 7.6, Afghanistan - 5.5, Iraq - 3.9%, Ethiopia - 3.6%. Of the total number of debtor countries, less than 1/3 of the states fulfill their debt obligations, and the total actual payments do not exceed 15-20% of the schedule.
Based on world practice, long-term countries related to the United Nations classification to the category of least developed countries are considered non-returnable. Therefore, in terms of the prospects for repaying, a significant part of the debts of Russia of Russia can be attributed to the category of hopeless, since the large group of debtors of Russia countries make up the developing states of Africa, of which we practically did not proceed to the service of their debt, while others have a high proprietary waste Debt. The non-payment of Russia of the existing debts of a number of developing debtor states is also explained by the military-political nature of credit relations with the former USSR.
The real market value of the assets of the former USSR in SD on various expert estimates does not exceed $ 30 billion, which is significantly less than the external obligations of Russia.
Somewhat clearer the situation with foreign debt of Russia to foreign countries. In 1994, the total amount of its external obligations (including the debt of the former USSR) was 120 billion dollars. The payment balance allows us to calculate that by the end of 1998, Russia's foreign obligations increased by more than $ 30 billion. Only on the line of government bodies.
Of the $ 103.0 billion, the debt of the former Soviet Union, which established at the end of 1995, 40.4% by the Paris Club (unites credit countries), 32.0% - the London Club (brings together credit banks). Taking into account the proximity of the maturity of these obligations (their majority should have been repaid in 1992-1995) and the lack of sufficient foreign currency reserves, the government was forced to look for ways to restructure this debt. The first step to achieve this goal was a series of temporary agreements with the Paris Club of creditors, and then the agreement was followed by a complete debt restructuring concluded in 1996 under this agreement 45% of debt will be paid for 25 years, while the remaining 55% - during The next 21 years. In both cases, the restructured main parts of debts should be repaid gradually increasing payments, since 2002, an agreement was also reached on the full restructuring of the debt of the former Soviet Union and members of the London Club of creditors. In December 1997, bonds were issued on the amount of the principal debt ($ 22.1 billion) and overdue interest ($ 6.1 billion), the repayment of which was stretched for 25 years, starting since 2002
The Russian government also recognized the debt of the former Soviet Union to the former CMEA members and the beginning to repay him. Debt reduction is mainly due to agreements achieved with Bulgaria and Poland on mutual debt involvement. The Government of the Russian Federation also concluded CO. Heads with other former CMEI member countries on the settlement of mutual obligations. Approximately 30% of obligations should be paid in cash, and the rest will be repaid in the form of goods.
Schedule servicing external debt taking into account the conditions achieved its restructuring in 1996-1997. Established a smooth increase of annual payments to $ 12-15 billion. By 2005, followed by decreasing them up to 2020, thus it was assumed that the restructuring of external debt will allow Russia to free themselves from the status of an insolvent state and build debt payments for a sufficiently long period. In accordance with the real opportunities of the economy, to serve this debt.
However, during the same period, the volume of foreign portfolio investments in short-term assets (GKO-OFZ) sharply increased. After August 17, 1998 it became obvious that Russia no longer fits into the previously agreed schedule of payments for restructured debt. The country was on the verge of default. The need for a new debt restructuring has become apparent.
Regulation of the balance of payments
The impact of the balance of payments on inside - and the foreign economic position of the country
International statistics indicate that the payment balances of the countries of the world are constantly in non-uniforms, i.e. The balance on current operations and the outcome balance balance is usually not equal to zero and therefore are balanced by the movement of capital, government operations and changes in reserves to balance the balance of payments.
The non-equilibrium balance of payments, the exception earlier rather rather, was the characteristic feature of our time. In the second half of the twentieth century. The economic growth rate of the world community was probably recorded in the entire history of mankind. Against this background, the uneven economic development of individual countries began to appear sharply. Thus, the strengthening of the positions of Japan and Germany in the global economy is accompanied by a positive balance of the current balance of payments of these countries. In other words, a sharp disorder of equilibrium in the global economy causes a sharp nonequilibrium in the balance of payments.
The non-equilibrium of the balance of the country, being primarily the regulator of inconomic processes, causes a number of consequences for its economy.
A stable positive balance balance on current operations strengthens the position of the national currency and at the same time allows you to have a solid financial base for capital export from the country; A stably negative balance weakens the position of the national currency and pushes the country to increasingly attracting foreign capital. If such an influx of capital is carried out not through long-term business investments (ie, direct and portfolio), but through long-term public and private bank loans and especially through emergency financing and growth of external obligations, then it leads to a rapid increase in the country's foreign debt and payments Him. The country begins to live on credit.
Strong fluctuations in balance balance on current operations (in that and the other side) cause the consequences unfavorable for the country. Thus, a sharp increase in the positive balance creates a base for rapid growth of the money supply and thereby stimulates inflation, and a sharp increase in the negative balance causes a "oblivion" drop in the exchange rate, which contributes chaos to the country's foreign economic operations. Therefore, when it comes to equilibrium balance of payments, the focus is primarily the deficit of the current balance of payments (if it was formed) and the strong fluctuations of his balance.
Methods of government balance of payments
There are several basic methods of state impact on the balance of payments.
The first method is a direct control, including import regulation (for example, through quantitative restrictions), customs and other fees, ban or restrictions on the transfer of income on foreign investment and cash transfers of individuals, a sharp reduction in free assistance, the export of short-term and long-term capital et al. Similar measures of direct control usually cause strong difficulties to see many companies in the country and are perceived by hostile.
In the short term, direct control gives a positive effect (it is more or less dependent on the level of compliance with the company's economic legislation and the ability of the government to monitor the fulfillment of its decisions). In the long term, the effect of these measures is contradictory, as it creates a "greenhouse mode" for local producers, the interest of foreign investors to the country is reduced due to the ban on the transfer of their income, there are difficulties with the involvement of foreign specialists, obstacles to expansion abroad and the service network for domestic exporters.
It does not cause hostility, but on the contrary, is welcomed by domestic firms such a straight measure as export subsidies. But it is expensive, and therefore its use is usually associated with the state of the country's budget. So, it is unlikely that the state of the state budget of Russia will allow it to actively subsidize exports in the near future.
The second method is deflation (i.e., the fight against inflation), which is aimed at solving inconomic tasks, while the side effect is to improve the state of the balance of payments. It is believed that traditional consequences for deflation policy - a decrease in production, investment and income - lead to reduction of imports and growth of backup power to export exports. Normal for deflation Increased real interest rates attracts short-term capital into the country, unless, of course, there is a developed banking SIS-WMA and low level of political risk.
However, there is another point of view: deflation reduces the report and increases imports. When deflation, it increases the exchange rate of the national currency, which increases the capabilities of the shorters. For exporters, the highest course of their national lute means that when exchanging export revenues, they receive less national currency, and this is not to stimulate exports.
Third method - changes in the exchange rate. And with solid, and with a floating course, they are under strong control and influence of the state. So, even in the floating rate, the state (usually represented by the Central Bank of the country) often seeks to keep these fluctuations within certain limits, focusing on the so-called course goals in order to avoid strong economic shocks.
The exchange rate changes help the state to regulate balance of balance of payments, but it should be borne in mind that the effect of revaluation / devaluation is weakened by the elasticity of exports and imports, as well as inertia of foreign trade flows. Therefore, viciously, the average and long-term impact of changes in the exchange rate on the balance of payments.
So, the inertia of foreign trade fluxes often leads to the fact that in the first months after a strong fall of the national currency exchange rate, the trade balance does not change and even can occur, oddly enough, its deterioration. After all, exporters need time to increase their exports, and importers - time to reduce the number of new contracts. In the meantime, foreign trade flows go on previously concluded contracts, the cost of exports and imports in dollars is not reduced, in the domestic market the cost of exported goods in rubles remains the same, and the cost of imported goods increases. True, after some time, the trade balance situation usually changes: exports increases and imports declining.
Import elasticity in modern conditions tends to reduce, since due to the growing participation of all countries in the international division of labor, the share of those products that are objectively needed are constantly increasing in national imports. Therefore, in the middle and long term, devaluation poorly reduces national imports, and the revaluation increases with noticeably. Export is usually more elastic and therefore in the middle and long term more sensitive to the national currency rate. So, the underestimated course of the brand and the yen was a powerful incentive for West German and Japanese exports in the first post-war decades.
The impact of changes in the exchange rate on the movement of capital is different. The import of long-term capital into the country is determined by promising purposes, and therefore changes are poorly reflected in the exchange rate. For the import of short-term capital into the country with freely convertible currency, on the contrary, it is important, as it is possible to play on changes in the course. Import increases before possible revaluation, and after it the export of capital increases.
conclusions
1. The balance of payments is a statistical report on all international deals of residents of a country with non-residents for a certain period of time. It reflects the ratio between the volume of goods and services obtained by this country due to the border and the abroad provided, as well as changes in the country's financial position in relation to abroad. The dynamics of the balance of payments is an important indicator for the government of any country in conducting economic policies, especially in currency, monetary and tax spheres.
2. In accordance with the principles of building a balance of payments, it is always balanced. The concept of a negative or positive balance applies only to separate parts. Usually, the trade balance is allocated inside the general balance of payments, the balance of current operations, the balance of capital and the balance of official calculations.
3. Analysis of the balance of payments of Russia for 1994-1998. Allows you to identify a number of sustainable trends in its dynamics, predetermined by the liberalization process of foreign economic relations and the macroeconomic government policies during market reforms:
- great Positive Trading Balance Self:
- sustainable negative balance of service balance:
- constantly increasing negative balance of revenue balances from investment as a result of increasing payments for servicing foreign debt:
- huge volumes of transferred payments for servicing the external debt of the former USSR and overdue payments for the obligations of developing countries to Russia:
- sharp fluctuations in balance balance of capital and reserve assets;
- significant negative sums on the article "Clean errors and skipping"
Terms and concepts
Payment balance
Residents
Non-residents
Net international investment position of the country
Current operations
Current balance of payments (balance on current operations)
The final balance (balance of official calculations)
International Investment Position of the country
Elastic approach
Absorption approach
Monetarist approach
Questions for self-test
1. What is the correct answer: 1) The balance of payments covers all foreign economic payments; 2) Payment balance covers all foreign economic operations of the country?
2. Which of the listed legal entities is the Russian resident:
a) the representation of the company "General Motors" in Moscow;
b) an enterprise registered in Moscow with 100% participation of the company "General Motors";
c) office "Inkombank" in the United States;
d) Department "Inkombank" in Cyprus?
3. Which of the listed transactions will contribute to an increase in the positive balance on current paying balance operations:
a) KAMAZ JSC supplies trucks to China in exchange (on barter) on consumer goods;
b) ExportHleb JSC imports grain from the US to the loan provided;
c) VEO "Prodintorg" imports tea from India to the repayment of interest on the loans previously obtained from Russia:
d) Atomenergoexport JSC supplies components for a power plant under construction under the plaster installment conditions?
4. How will the following operations be reflected in the balance of payments:
a) increased the amount of funds on the currency accounts of residents in Russian commercial banks;
b) expired payments on the main part of the debt relative to the payment schedule:
c) humanitarian assistance was obtained in the form of food and medicines;
d) the exporter in violation of the current legislation returned export revenue from abroad;
e) Resident drove cash and exchanged it on rubles in the exchange office?
5. Explain the relationship between the dynamics of the balance on the current operations of the country's balance sheet and the national currency exchange rate.
PAYMENT BALANCE It is a systematic assessment of economic operations between resident residents and non-residents related to receipt and payments. The main operations of obtaining are the exports from the export of goods, services, income from foreign investment and the acquisition by foreign companies in the country's internal assets, and the main operations of payments - the payment of imports, services, revenues for foreign investment in this country and the acquisition of foreign assets by residents. The balance of payments is made up for a specific period - year, quarter, month. Under residents are subject to legal entities and individuals operating in a given country. The information contained in the balance of payments is used to assess the country's creditworthiness, predicting the impact of foreign economic relations to the foreign exchange market and the exchange rate, their regulation, assessing the state of the country's economy, predicting the possible economic, fiscal and monetary policy, the calculations of the gross domestic product, etc. Financial relations and international comparisons required the unification of methods for drawing up balances in various countries and coordinates them with the system of national accounts. The latest recommendations for drawing up balance of payments were published by the International Monetary Fund in 1993.
When making a balance of payments, a double recording principle adopted in accounting is used. Each operation is reflected in the debit and credit account, and the final amount of the debit must be equal to the total amount of the loan. Loan amounts are formed as a result of exporting goods and services and inflows of capital, which leads to the admission of foreign currency to the account, they are reflected with the plus sign. Debites are formed as a result of imports of goods and services and outflow of capital leading to foreign currency consumption. They are reflected with the minus sign. In the balance of payments, economic operations are recorded at market prices, i.e. At prices, in fact, the exchange of economic values \u200b\u200bhas actually occurred.
Payment balances It is customary to be in the national currency of the relevant countries, with recalculation of data on market currency courses, folding at the date of operations. If the national currency is unstable, the balance of payments can be drawn up in a solid currency of any country.
Two sections are allocated in the balance sheet - accounts: "Current Account" and "Account Account Account and Financial Instruments". Under current operations (see Balance of current operations), operations with goods, services and incomes are understood. The balance of operations with capital and financial instruments characterizes operations related to investment activities. The balance of current operations and the balance according to the total of capital and financial assets should be equal to each other in absolute value and have opposite signs. The deficit of the balance of payments for current operations means that the country spends on the purchase of goods, services and other current operations more than foreign currency, which receives from their sales. It is funded by selling non-resident assets and due to external loans. With limited assets and difficulties in obtaining the country's loans with a sustained deficit of the current balance of payments, it is forced to reduce imports and increase exports. The positive balance of the current balance means the increase in pure foreign assets. The general payment balance of the country is positive if the balance of current operations in the amount with the balance of operations with capital and financial instruments forms a positive balance. This leads to a foreign currency influx into a country and an increase in foreign exchange stocks. In the case of a negative balance, the balance of payments deficit and the National Bank of the country are forced to reduce foreign currency reserves. The country cannot spend more money for a long time for a long time for the purchase of foreign goods, services and assets than revenue from the sale of own goods, services and assets. Therefore, the balance of payments is its most important analytical concept.
Active balance of payments - Payment balance, in which income exceeds payments. The active balance of the balance of payments contributes to strengthening the country's foreign exchange position.
Passive balance of payments - Payment balance, in which payments exceed income. Typically, the passive balance of payments is covered by using its foreign exchange reserves, or with the help of foreign loans and loans or import capital.
Balance balance - In payment calculations - the difference between the amounts of foreign income and payments. It is believed that the balance of balance sheet should always be equal to zero. Passive or active balance reflects the imbalance of composite parts of the balance and, as a rule, shows the amount to which foreign exchange reserves of the state decreased or increased.
Balance deficit - Passive balance of the account balance of current operations and the balance of capital account balance.
Balance of the country - the ratio of cash payments entering the country from abroad, and all of its payments abroad for a certain period of time (year, quarter, month). In the balance of payments, all foreign economic operations of the country find the cost expression. In most countries of the world, the balance of payments are drawn up in the form recommended by the International Monetary Fund. There are: foreign trade balance, service balance and non-commercial payments and balance of capital and loans.
Current balance of payments - Part of the balance of payments of the country, including trade balance, service balance and non-commercial payments.
| Evaluation of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in January-September 2008 (billion US dollars) http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/credit_statistics/print.asp?file\u003dbal_of_payments_est.htm | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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TRADE BALANCE- the ratio between the amount of prices of goods exported by any country or a group of countries and the amount of prices of goods imported by them for a certain period of time, for example for the year, quarter, month. In other words, the trade balance is the export and import of any country for a certain period or date.
If the cost of the export of goods of this country exceeds the value of their import, then the trade balance is active. If the value of the importation exceeds the cost of export, then such a trade balance is passive. In the case of coincidence of the cost of export and the importation, net is formed - balance. A country having a passive trade balance must cover the deficit by spending the various flow of balance of payments, in particular income from transportation on its own means of transport or through its territory of foreign goods, interest and dividends from investment over the border, inflow of foreign capital, foreign loans, the use of reserve Foreign currencies and gold exports. The active balance of trade balance largely characterizes the beneficial economic situation of the country, is one of the important indicators of the degree of dependence of its economy from foreign markets, from the state of conjuncture, international competition, as well as political dependence on other states.
Estimated balance - the ratio of requirements and obligations of a given country due to its trade and non-trading operations, credit and other relations for a certain period or to a specific date.
